Option Solving Blog

Your editor looked at this situation two weeks ago and put together an option solving (OS) scenario to meet what’s required. Surprisingly enough as he revisits his (OS) pictograph once again, it still seems to hold up pretty well considering the time interval. He now proposes to share it with others who are interested, who may wish to insert their own perspective or follow this one. So we will now follow the recommended OS approach to reach an optimal decision at this stage.

It seems as though the appropriate question to ask is: “What is the West’s optimum option for diffusing the Russia-Ukraine crisis and returning to peace once more; considering 1) Russian leader is fixated with emotional but erroneous self-righteousness, 2) West requires unified resolve, 3) West needs to marshal overpowering defenses, and 4) Ukrainians need to hold out as long as possible?” Again, it’s appropriate for world government leaders to focus on just these latter four considerations to reduce complexity in any eventual decision – when the ultimate decision moment arrives – despite there being many other possible considerations out there.

We would encourage our world leaders to choose yin and yang “bookends”,as these will help keep their intuitive minds focus against other mental distractions. Bookends such as these are vital for preventing our fertile intuitive minds from wandering and losing concentration. We are mostly unaware of how powerfully valuable but foot-loose our intuition can be unless we can keep it properly focused on such occasions.   

Their two bookends came out as: “Seek early, peace talks at any price” – Make it too easy for Russia;and “West pursues an all out assault against Russia” – Would start WWIII. You will note the italicized detractors associated with these least likely options, which therefore put them out of consideration. Even so, these bookends now nudge the West’s political leadership’s intuitive thinking into high gear, to consider an optimum range of options – see ourLatest Worked Example.

Their advisors have now come up with their six most realistic options – A thru F – after some thought. Those leaders will then be positioned to pursue emotional distancing beforethey proceed with any outcome decision. They would then review these declared options, perhaps after 2 hours, later in the day, or first thing the following morning, before arriving at an optimal conclusion. You can replace its proposed options with any of your own.

While all the options looked quite relevant, the world’s political leadership was initially particularly intrigued by – Option C: Red Cross to airlift food and medical supplies to key Ukraine cities. The various government leaders then decided to sleep on it until the following morning and then act accordingly. They will stick with whatever option the overall, aggregate intuition is chosen; to avoid unhelpful confusion and to capitalize on their “wisdom of the crowd.”

If you have an example of your own, please share it with this blogger, through the COMMENTS area or contact him at peter@ileadershipsolutions.com .  Thanks Option Solving. (NOTE: Our next posting will be in two week’s time: “Looking ahead: How should world leaders help orchestrate an optimal end-game?”  Let’s have your COMMENTS or go to peter@ileadershipsolutions.com to connect with the blogger. Also consider buying the book: “Smart Decisions: Goodbye Problems, Hello Options” through amazon.com)

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