Option Solving Blog

With the way events have unfolded over the past 2 weeks in the Russia-Ukraine duel; your editor decided to modify his original Option D to read – NATO finds every way to support Ukraine to create a stalemate. By doing so over time and by inflicting maximum damage to Russia’s economy through sanctions, then it increases the possibility of forcing Russia to the negotiating table. At that time, an equitable peace solution will be found at some point. It therefore behooves NATO to consider its sub-options to Option D.

 So now the sub-question becomes: “What is the West’s optimum option for diffusing the Russia-Ukraine crisis and returning to peace once more: Peel the Onion with OPTION D- NATO to force a stalemate; considering 1) Russian leader has dug his heels in, 2) NATO is united, 3) sanctions on Russia will eventually bite, and 4) Ukrainians are determined to hang on?” Again, it’s appropriate for world government leaders to focus on just these latter four considerations to reduce complexity in any eventual decision – when the ultimate decision moment arrives – despite there being many other possible considerations out there.

We would encourage our world leaders to consider fresh yin and yang “sub-bookends”,as these will help keep their intuitive minds focused against other mental distractions. Bookends such as these are vital for preventing our fertile intuitive minds from wandering and losing concentration. We are mostly unaware of how powerfully valuable but foot-loose our intuition can be unless we can keep it properly focused on such occasions.   

The two new sub-bookends are proposed as: “Seek peace at any price” – Make it too easy for Russia;and “NATO planes and troops to break stalemate” – Would likely start WWIII. You will note the italicized detractors associated with these least likely options, which shows why they were put out of consideration. Even so, these bookends now nudge the West’s political leadership’s intuitive thinking into high gear, to consider an optimum range of options – see ourLatest Worked Example.

Their advisors have now come up with their six new realistic sub-options – AA thru FF – after some thought. Those leaders will then be positioned to pursue emotional distancing beforethey proceed with any outcome decision. They would then review these declared options, perhaps after 2 hours, later in the day, or first thing the following morning, before arriving at an optimal conclusion. You can replace its proposed options with any of your own.

While all the options looked quite relevant, the world’s political leadership was initially particularly intrigued by – Sub-Option EE: NATO to provide all air defense systems to Ukraine to minimize Russian planes and rockets. The various government leaders then decided to sleep on it until the following morning and then act accordingly. They will stick with whatever option the overall, aggregate intuition is chosen; to avoid unhelpful confusion and to capitalize on their “wisdom of the crowd.”

If you have an example of your own, please share it with this blogger, through the COMMENTS area or contact him at peter@ileadershipsolutions.com .  Thanks Option Solving. (NOTE: Our next posting will be in two week’s time: “Looking ahead: How should world leaders help orchestrate an optimal end-game?”Let’s have your COMMENTS or go to peter@ileadershipsolutions.com to connect with the blogger. Also consider buying the book: “Smart Decisions: Goodbye Problems, Hello Options” through amazon.com)

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