Option Solving Blog

As events have continued to unfold over the past 2 weeks between the two countries, there’s been increased speculation that the war could drag on for some considerable time, maybe even years. This creates a new scenario for the West to try and find an optimal end-game for both parties. There’s been ever increasing pressure, especially with the revelations over the past week of Russian atrocities in communities around Kyiv.

 So now the new question becomes: “Looking Ahead: How should World leaders help orchestrate an optimal Russia-Ukraine end game ; considering 1) it could take years to resolve, 2) Russian atrocities are swinging people further against them, 3) West is relying on economic sanctions to work, and 4) can Ukrainians sustain the fight?” Again, it’s appropriate for world government leaders to focus on just these latter four considerations to reduce complexity in any eventual decision – when the ultimate decision moment arrives – despite there being many other possible considerations out there.

We would encourage our world leaders to again consider fresh yin and yang “bookends”,as these will help keep their intuitive minds focused against other mental distractions. Bookends such as these are vital for preventing our fertile intuitive minds from wandering and losing concentration. We are mostly unaware of how powerfully valuable but foot-loose our intuition can be unless we can keep it properly focused on such occasions.   

The two bookends now proposed are: “Early Ukrainian Capitulation” – West try to prevent;and “Major diplomatic breakthru between Putin and Zelensky” – Untenable for Russia. You will note the italicized detractors associated with these least likely options, which shows why they were put out of consideration. Even so, these bookends now nudge the West’s political leadership’s intuitive thinking into high gear again, to consider a new optimum range of options – see ourLatest Worked Example.

Their advisors have now come up with five new realistic options – A thru E – with F pending after further thought. Those leaders will then be positioned to pursue emotional distancing beforethey proceed with any outcome decision. They would then review these declared options, perhaps after 2 hours, later in the day, or first thing the following morning, before arriving at an optimal conclusion. You can replace its proposed options with any of your own.

While all the options looked quite relevant, the world’s political leadership was initially particularly intrigued by – Option C: Ukraine receives weapons + planes to stop Russian bombing, rockets and tanks. The various government leaders then again decided to sleep on it until the following morning and then proceed accordingly. They are strongly encouraged to stick with whatever option the overall, aggregate intuition chooses to capitalize on their “wisdom of the crowd.”

If you have an example of your own, please share it with this blogger, through the COMMENTS area or contact him at peter@ileadershipsolutions.com .  Thanks Option Solving. (NOTE: Our next posting will be in two week’s time: “What is this writer’s best option to keep book publi-cation on track?”  Let’s have your COMMENTS or go to peter@ileadershipsolutions.com to connect with the blogger. Also consider buying the book: “Smart Decisions: Goodbye Problems, Hello Options” through amazon.com)

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